Preview of Dutch nationals cross country at Rijen - Second day, March 1, 2009
Women 1992-1993, 3900 metres - starts 11.30 CET
We are certainly not impressed by the progress made this winter by Maureen Koster, an
athlete we know very well, but after the junior indoor nationals in Apeldoorn, on February
7-8, we would bet her rivals did not make enough progress either. So unless Koster is
really very ill or badly injured, she will have an easy ride on March 1, to her second
national cross country title.
We happen to know her closest rivals equally well (the contrary would not make any sense, unless we worked from Papendal), and on the basis of what we have seen over the last 3-4 months, we can cross out one after the other for gold. Juul Lavrijsen could do a hell of a lot better with more overdistance training (like a saving of 20 seconds over 1500 metres). We have told her this for almost three years, and so did her head coach Has van Cuijk, but it is certain that she taken better advice so far. C�line de Wild made excellent progress until the second half of January, but after the Mast Forests cross country in Breda on January 18, her upward curve flattened. Jip Vastenburg, who decided to skip the only 2100 metres race of women of 1994-1995 on Saturday, Marlin van Hal, and Van Hal's first lieutenant Irene van Lieshout may be a threat for the future, but did not do anything this winter, that would frighten Koster. The opposition can only get back into the game with the assistance of Koster herself.
Men 1992-1993, 5700 metres - starts 11.55 CET
This is quite a distance for boys in the age group of 15-17 years, for succesful distance
running requires an awful lot of overdistance training, rather than high speed sessions on
the track. We are not sure which of the candidates has found the better balance in
training, but the results of the winter 2008-2009 clearly point into the direction of the
quartet Leon Koch, Timothy Vergauwen, Maikel van der Steen, and Hans Dilling. With more
than seventy names on the starting list, this may be one of the most interesting battles
on Sunday. We would add Lex Sinnige as a dangerous outsider.
Women 1990-1991, 4500 metres - starts 12.30 CET
Margriet Berkhout did not look invicible since the Dutch XC nationals of last year, but
only the Belgian champion Jana van Wabeke has been able to beat her in races in the
Benelux this winter. The gap with her Dutch challengers seemed to have narrowed in the
later Summer of 2008, but widened again from November on. Jamie van Lieshout did very well
indoors over 1500 metres, but not well enough to make Berkhout sleep worse. The race of
March 1 is three times longer, and that is certain to work in favor of Berkhout.
Rachel Klamer, duathlete Maaike Caelers, and perhaps Jessica Oosterloo and Marrijtje
Molenhuis, will battle for bronze.
Men 1990-1991, 6300 metres - starts 13.00 CET
From the results of the last three months or so, Wesley Pau�l and Jesper van der
Wielen are the clear favorites in this race. Olaf Mesman, Jurjen Polderman, and Vito
Verbeek may have done equally well or even better in the outdoor season of 2008, but they
have never proven themselves in the winter of 2008-2009. If there is one athlete in
this category that has made the kind of progress that could be expected of athletes of
this age, it has got to be Wouter Timmermans. The distance of 6300 metres may even work
more in his favor. Wouter Dilling did not have a great winter season so far, but should
not be underestimated in races this long.
Women 2100 metres - starts 13.35 CET
We would argue that this is by a long way the better race of senior women, with Anne van
den Hurk, Nina Mathijssen, Raika Lenaarts, and Manon Kruiver as candidates for the medals.
The very early part of the race will be decisive for the rest.
Men 3300 metres - starts 13.50 CET
This is the sort of battle, Metallica had in mind when they composed the lyrics of the
Leper Messiah (the music was probably inspired by Carl Orff, a 20th Century composer of
classical music). No matter who wins this short race, the victory will be one of the type:
"Sugarboy was rolling". But even in the country of the blinds, a king will be
crowned. We bet the king will come from the little array {Guus Janssen; Tom Wiggers; Johan
de Koning}. A literal translation of the latter would sound like John the King, King John,
or John Lackland, to make it more applicable to the situation.
Women 6300 metres - starts 14.10 CET
With the absence of long-way favorites Susan Kuijken and Adrienne Herzog, the battle for
gold is likely to be fought between Miranda Boonstra and Selma Borst, if she is in shape
in time. Jolanda Verstraten and Andrea Deelstra may battle for bronze once more.
Men 10200 metres - starts 14.45 CET
This has always been the only championship race that really counts, and in 2009 probably
more than ever. Defender Michel Butter is an obvious favorite. Only illness or injury will
keep him from his third consecutive victory. De Telegraaf, the largest newspaper of the
Netherlands reported on February 28, that Butter has an ankle injury, and therefore unable
to defend his title. This puts the burden of the race automatically on the shoulders of
Patrick Stitzinger, we has to deal with the tough 35-plussers Marco Gielen and Greg van
Hest. Dutch Limburg is well represented in the top of the bookmakers' lists with
Stitzinger, Gielen, Roger Smeets, and Joost van den Ende. Gerwin van den Hurk and Abdi
Nageeye (should probably be spelled as Nagi) complete the list of contenders for a medal.
The size and average strength of the field are not impressive. Butter and his closest
rivals would have had a very much more difficult job against numerous opponents of the
period of 1946-2006, that much we can prove easily, even with the devil on the other side
of the bar. It appears that we have come to the lowest level of competition in official
Dutch cross country championships since World War II. No show of any former deputy
minister can conceal that.
Copyright © 2009 by Michel Franssen
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